wrestler actually did win.     7-7 WRESTLERS PREDICTED WIN PERCENTAGE AGAINST8-6 OPPONENT 7-7 WRESTLERS ACTUAL WIN PERCENTAGE AGAINST8-6 OPPONENT   48.7 79.6     So the 7-7 wrestler, based on past outcomes, was expected to win just less than half the time. This makes sense; their records in this tournament indicate that the 8-6 wrestler is slightly better. But in ac- tuality, the wrestler on the bubble won almost eight out of ten matches   against his 8-6 opponent. Wrestlers on the bubble also do astonish- ingly well against 9-5 opponents:     7-7 WRESTLERS PREDICTED WIN PERCENTAGE AGAINST9-5OPPONENT 7-7 WRESTLERS ACTUAL WIN PERCENTAGE AGAINST9-5OPPONENT   47.2 73.4     As suspicious as this looks, a high winning percentage alone isnt enough to prove that a match is rigged. Since so much depends on a wrestlers eighth win, he should be expected to fight harder in a crucial bout. But perhaps there are further clues in the data that prove collu- sion. Its worth thinking about the incentive a wrestler might have to throw a match. Maybe he accepts a bribe (which would obviously not be recorded in the data). Or perhaps some other arrangement is made between the two wrestlers. Keep in mind that the pool of elite sumo